When those of us doing business in the timeshare industry heard the news that Marriott International, Inc. is splitting off its Marriott Vacation Club International (MVCI), we were stunned. What will this mean for the industry? At an ARDA event more than ten years ago we had heard Bill Marriott claim that vacation ownership revenues were the company’s greatest source of income. Times have changed and the hoteliers are now disenchanted. One has to believe this is short-term thinking.
We believe that the timeshare/vacation ownership industry will rebound stronger than ever, in concert with the U.S. economy. In the industry’s 30-plus years, it has been proven time and again that the health of our business is cyclical. When it recovers, it will most certainly be a stronger and more resilient product. Perhaps the underlying real estate aspect to the U.S. version of timeshare may change; maybe not. But one thing is for sure: hotel rates will rebound and make vacationing at a hotel formidably expensive for the middle class family.
According to an article from Keith Trowbridge’s February 2011 newsletter (http://www.execq.com), one hotshot analyst claimed that timeshare has caused publicly traded companies to lose value with the rating companies. We remember when rating companies were only too eager to give timeshare paper plus-A ratings. And they will, again (probably after this analyst is making other ‘learned’ pronouncements about what a great low-risk investment it is).
Sure, after the announcement, Marriott stock was up by a few bucks. The short-term gains were probably not the corporation’s chief objective, though. No, this is a play to segregate debt by unloading it from their balance sheet.
Marriott says the timeshare club will continue using the Marriott and Ritz-Carlton brands in the timeshare business. According to the company’s public reports, MVCI’s 2010 revenue was approximately $1.5 billion, with 71 properties and more than 400,000 owners.
Other timeshare companies with far fewer owners have managed to carve new business from their existing customer base – one area in which MVCI could potentially increase its efforts. If they are to be taken at their word that MVCI may continue to utilize the Marriott and Ritz Carlton brands, then for our money, MVCI looks like a terrific investment at this time. Of course, I am definitely not in the business of giving investment advice!
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